Infra Play #143: Memory supercycle?
Oh boy, here we go again
Over April I rebuilt the positions that now form the Q2’26 Infra Play portfolio (which hopefully will not require a complete directional shift, but you never know what happens with Taiwan). There are some expected names, as well as many new ones.
Power, cooling, custom silicon, memory, lithography, silicon photonics foundry, InP tools, connectivity silicon. Each layer is a separate bottleneck, each bottleneck is structurally short on supply, and each name is the cleanest expression of the layer it sits in.
I recently published the Q2'26 Infra Play portfolio and it's been quite the run, to say the least. Tech market valuations exploded, driving strong support for the "bottlenecks of AI" thesis. The overall return in April is at 47%, which is outstanding by any conventional measure.
There is, however, a bit of a but here.
My actual P/L looks slightly different due to different entries and exits, but obviously making a 25.6% gain on this portfolio within a quarter is not exactly slim pickings.
The Q1 version of the portfolio did very well considering all of the events (tariffs, war, SaaSpocalypse, stagflation), but most of it was carried by the exceptional rally of SanDisk. To make things a bit worse, if I had remained with the same positions going into Q2 and not sold, we would be looking at more than a 100% gain in April alone.
The real driver behind the massive opportunity in the last weeks has been the rally in MU, SanDisk, SK Hynix, Intel, and AMD. The thread between them has been the massive demand for compute, but the star of the show has truly been memory as the key bottleneck of scaling AI.
This raises the question: are we in a memory supercycle, and how do we play it?